By: Elena Grace Flores
Rand Corporation released a report that illuminates four hypothetical scenarios for the outcome of US-China war. It was noted that Chinese military capabilities will improve between 2015 to 2025, until the US can no longer be certain a war would develop as it expects, nor can it achieve a decisive victory once war really happens with China. The US will have more difficulties defeating China if it takes place closer to 2025 but it is not likely also that China could win the war.
In the economic side of the arena, when US suffers a 5 to 10 percent decrease in GDP, China will suffer 25 to 35 percent. War will only lead to intensified partisan competition in the US, but China will be bothered with extreme chaos and ethnic division. The report also believes that if a war erupts in 2016, the US might lose naval and air forces, aircraft carriers, and regional air bases but Chinese losses would be massive that rebuilding will be difficult.
The US’s provoking China may not be a great deal since China’s military and economic strength is still weaker than that of the US – and China knows that. China for sure doesn’t want wars, particularly with the US. The biggest risks for Japan and the Philippines will be their dragging into war coming from their alliances with the United States, which will make theme one with the US – as far as China is concerned.
It is evident however that China will keep on building up its war capabilities against, anticipating conflicts with the US.The report concluded that no matter what type of war, China will suffer a heavier loss than the US, not just militarily wise, but also economically and politically.